About a month ago the John McCain presidential campaign famously accused Barack Obama of “playing the race card from the bottom of the deck”. Without getting into why or how completely asinine this is, let’s discuss why John McCain and the Republicans really want to avoid the issue of race, the 700 pound gorilla in the middle of the room, and why this greatly benefits John McCain, quiet as it’s kept – just by using some simple math.

In May of this year, a poll of primary voters nationally revealed that 17% could not vote for a black man for president under any circumstances. While disturbing on so many levels, I can at least appreciate the fact that there are still people in the populace that are willing to be outwardly honest about their bigotry, prejudices and racism. I don’t like it, but I respect it. I’ve always said that I would rather somebody be a racist to my face than behind my back; at least that way I know who and what I’m dealing with.

In 2004, 62 million Americans voted for George W. Bush. In 2000, 50.5 million Americans voted for him. Given the historic nature and the issues and future at stake in this presidential election cycle, I’m inclined to believe that the number of voters for either candidate this time around will be closer to the 62 million votes cast for the winner in 2004. For our purposed and just for the sake of argument, however, let’s split the difference between 2000 and 2004 and call it 56 million. I want to try to be fair here and not make one side or the other worse than this conclusion is already going to look (this will become abundantly clear in a minute).

If the 17% of voters who just can’t vote for somebody for no other reason than because he is black has any validity to it, that means that they are going to vote for his opponent, in this case John McCain, for just that primary reason. If you take the 56 million likely voters for John McCain and multiply it by 17% (56,000,000 x .17), that means that at least 9.5 million Americans are going to vote for John McCain because Barack Obama is black –

— And there you have why Republicans in general and John McCain in particular want no part of a discussion on race. They don’t want to admit to anybody, least of all themselves, that they are going to get – and rely – on a large part of their voting bloc from people who don’t like blacks. The Republicans and John McCain don’t want to admit that bigotry and racism is a very big, ugly institution maintained by a large portion of the population: 9.5 million Americans can’t get past it – and quite frankly, the Republicans and John McCain don’t want those 9.5 million bigots and racists to get past it; the Republicans and John McCain need them if they have any chance of winning in November.

The Republicans and John McCain don’t want to admit to any of this because they can’t. Admitting to it means they would have to either renounce the more than 9.5 million racist voters they desperately need and are going to get, or they would have to defend them. They can’t come out and say, “If you are a racist or a bigot we don’t want your vote.” That’s at least 9.5 million voters they do not want to alienate. Conversely, they can’t defend them and say, “We don’t believe what they believe, but they have the right to vote however they want and we won’t discourage them.” Either way it is a lose-lose proposition and an issue that is radioactive as hell.

What’s more, the Republicans and John McCain can’t make the counter argument that blacks will vote for Barack Obama because he is black. If anybody really thinks that, they need look no further than the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race of 2006. Lynn Swann, the black Republican candidate, lost his bid for governor to Ed Rendell: 94% of all blacks who cast a vote in that election voted for Rendell (if that doesn’t scream that you’ve lost your black card and are an Uncle Tom I don’t know what does, but that’s a subject for another time).

So anytime the issue of race even hints at rearing its ugly head, don’t be surprised when the Republicans and John McCain either flip the script and race bait Barack Obama or attack with an unfounded accusation of their own. Because race isn’t a subject that Obama is afraid of – John McCain is –

Just do the math.

 – daveydoug

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