MCZ has covered the FIFA World Cup in depth since 2002 and this year we have multiple correspondents weighing in on the tournament. First off, Arnold Woods gives you his predictions:
First, my expectation of how group play will turn out, with FIFA rankings in parenthesis.
Group A:
Brazil (4)
Croatia (20)
Mexico (19)
Cameroon (50)
Brazil has one of the top squads in the world, home field advantage, and a fairly easy draw. However, advancing out of the group won’t be good enough. Nothing less than a World Cup championship is expected, particularly after the Confederations Cup win last summer. Advancing out of group play is a given, a championship is not out of the question. Croatia had a tough time in qualifying and may be without top striker Mario Mandzukic for a game or two because of red card issues in qualifying. However, a coach switch and emphasis on defense has improved their lot and they may have enough ammunition to get by Mexico and advance. Mexico was lucky to advance out of qualifying, finishing behind both Costa Rica and Honduras, resulting in a coaching change. No Mexican team has failed to advance out of group play since 1978, but its looking like this squad will find a way not to. Samuel Eto’o of Cameroon is a world class player, but his presence won’t help Cameroon win a game in this tough group. It’ll be another disappointment for the Indomitable Lions.
Group B:
Spain (1)
Netherlands (15)
Chile (13)
Australia (59)
The 2010 finalists meet again in group play this time and the result should be the same. The Spaniards remain the cream of the crop in the world and will look to repeat as World Cup champions. Their qualifying path was a little rockier this time, but when they needed to, Spain exerted its dominance. Group B is a tough group, but one the Spaniards should still win. The Dutch still have key veterans, but are more inexperienced team this time. They feature some players from the 2011 European Under-17 championship team, but it is probably too much to expect them to do as well as the 2010 finalist squad. They should still advance out of the group, but are not likely to make it as far this time. Chile plays an exciting style and Arturo Vidal is an intimidating presence in the midfield, but Chile will need to improve their defense to advance. The Aussies are here because of a weak qualifying group. They are, however, the punching bag in this group and will be lucky to get even a point.
Group C:
Colombia (5)
Greece (10)
Cote D’Ivoire (21)
Japan (47)
Colombia’s history at the World Cup is more tragic than anything else and 2014 may be no exception as they have already lost top striker Radamel Falcao to a knee injury. However, even if Falcao doesn’t rehab in time, there’s enough talent and the home continent advantage, that they should finish first in this group. Greece lives and dies with its defense, but will have to score some goals, something they have a real problem doing. Like Colombia, they also lost a top player, striker Kostas Mitroglou, to injury. Their defense may get them out of group play, but won’t carry them very far after that. Didier Drogba and Yaya Toure have carried Cote D’Ivoire into the last two World Cups, but they’ll need some help from some younger talent to advance out of group play this time. It’s not likely to happen. Japan has looked good in international friendly competition and terrible in international tournament competition. That is not a good precedent for their World Cup chances.
Group D:
Uruguay (6)
Italy (9)
England (11)
Costa Rica (34)
Uruguay was a final four team four years ago, but barely made it through qualifying this time around. This squad has been together for awhile but may be getting past their prime. Either Uruguay or Italy could win this group, but Uruguay gets the nod here with their attacking ability and experience. Italy is a perennial World Cup power, but this is a new team from the one that won in 2006. They’ve typically do well in tournaments and should advance out of group play here despite the tough draw. England thinks of itself as a world soccer power, but there has been little evidence of it in their downward trend of recent Cups. They’re bringing in some new talent, but this English squad is probably not good enough to get by Uruguay and Italy. Costa Rica finished ahead of Mexico in qualifying, but their midfield and defense leave a lot to be desired. This may be one of Costa Rica’s better squads, but a tough group draw spells the end for any advancement past group play hopes they have.
Group E:
Switzerland (8)
France (16)
Ecuador (28)
Honduras (30)
The Swiss had an extremely easy qualifying run which over inflated their world ranking and got them a top group seed. A fortunate draw should help them advance out of group play, but the Swiss may not find things so easy after that. Once a top defensive team, the Swiss defense now has holes that will prove troublesome. France is looking to recover from their embarrassing showing four years ago. They have the talent to advance, the question is whether they have the will to do so as this is a team that qualified by the seat of their pants. Ecuador tragically lost striker Christian Benitez to cardiac arrest last year and will find it hard to make up his offense on the world stage. They netted only five goals in away games during qualifying. Honduras qualified. That’s as far as this aging squad goes.
Group F:
Argentina (7)
Nigeria (44)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (25)
Iran (37)
Argentina has an easy trip through group play. With perhaps the top set of strikers in the tournament, this is a team that figures to go deep into the tournament, but will have to overcome their defensive deficiences against better competition in the knockout rounds. Nigeria’s defensive issues will prevent them from going far, but their success at last year‘s Africa Nation‘s Cup has given this squad confidence. This is Bosnia and Herzegovina’s first foray into the World Cup. The Bosnians attack with gusto, but with little thought for defense, a strategy that does not fare as well against Cup competition. Though they have a higher world ranking than Nigeria, their lack of depth and experience will likely keep them from advancing out of group play. Iran qualified for the World Cup, but their story ends there. Political issues have prevented the Iranians from playing friendlies and they lack the scoring power to do much damage.
Group G:
Germany (2)
USA (14)
Portugal (3)
Ghana (38)
This is a tough group, but the Germans are in fine form entering this World Cup. They have the best midfield depth in the world and should win the group. The only drawback they may face is their own health with several players hoping to regain strength before the Cup begins. The U.S. faces tough odds at advancing. Jurgen Klinsmann’s squad started out rough, but his methods have proved fruitful and the Americans got better each game during qualifying. If Michael Bradley can control the midfield and Clint Dempsey maintains his scoring touch, they will be in good position to score the upset over Portugal and advance. Portugal is a perennial underachiever and barely got through qualifying finishing behind Russia in their qualifying group. Cristiano Ronaldo may be one of the top 5 players in the world, but the lack of a top center-forward figures to lead Portugal to underachieve again. This is not the same Ghana team as the one who knocked the Americans out in the last World Cup. They may manage one last upset in this group, but even witht the return of Michael Essien, they are not strong enough to advance out of the group.
Group H:
Belgium (12)
Algeria (25)
Russia (18)
South Korea (55)
Belgium has managed high world ranking which resulted in a top seed and ultimately a weak group. The Belgians have a lot of good young talent, but are not experienced enough to merit the top group seed, particularly with the loss of top striker Christian Benteke to a ruptured tendon. They are still good enough to win this group, but may not get much further. Algeria is a minor upset pick to finish second over Russia, but they have a little more experience on the world stage and top players doing well in European leagues. The Russians eked out a qualifying group win over Portugal, but with a squad that will likely mostly be drawn from the Russian leagues and on a continent and a hemisphere on the other side of the world, the lack of international experience will hold them back. The 2002 South Korean squad that shocked the world with its 3rd place finish is long gone. The 2014 team doesn’t create well and defends set pieces poorly. The South Koreans are fortunate to be in a weak group, but look to be the weakest of that group.
Based on the above, you’ll get an initial knockout round of this:
Brazil (A1) beats Netherlands (B2): The Dutch were great four years ago, but run into the Brazilian juggernaut on home turf and get overwhelmed.
Spain (B1) beats Croatia (A2): The Croats are lucky to advance out of group play and their World Cup ends against the 2010 champs.
Italy (D2) beats Colombia (C1): Italian experience wins out over Colombia despite home continent advantage.
Uruguay (D1) over Greece (C2): Uruguay’s offense manages enough goals against tough Greek defense.
Switzerland (E1) over Nigeria (F2): the Swiss run of luck continues with an easy first round knockout game.
Argentina (F1) over France (E2): France is no match for Lionel Messi’s team.
Germany (G1) beats Algeria (H2): Germany should crush this Algerian team.
USA (G2) beats Belgium (H1): could be best game of first knockout round. American resiliency getting out of a tough group ends up beating talented young Belgian squad.
This gets us to the following quarterfinal match-ups.
Brazil (A1) over Italy (D2): Italy’s run comes to an end against the home team as the Italians can’t keep up with the deep Brazilian team.
Germany (G1) over Switzerland (E1): Swiss were lucky to make it this far. Germany controls the midfield and the game.
Spain (B1) beats Uruguay (D1): this will be best game of the quarterfinals. Uruguay’s run comes to end against the defending champs, who do everything well.
Argentina (F1) beats USA (G2): Americans can’t keep up with Messi and the Argentineans.
Which brings us to what looks like a fantastic semi-finals.
Brazil (A1) gets by Germany (G1): the Germans are probably a deeper and more complete squad, but Brazil has the crowd and Neymar. This game probably comes down to penalty kicks, but I like the Brazilians to edge out the Germans in the end.
Spain (B1) over Argentina (F1): this is another game that could end up in penalty kicks. Argentina has as good an attack as any other team, but Spain controls the pitch better than any one else. Ultimately, that controls wins out.
And this brings us to a magnificent final: the defending champions against the host and five time champs.
Spain (B1) prevails over Brazil (A1): this will offend the home crowd, but Spain is just too deep and too good. The Spanish offense is probably not quite as good as four years ago, but the midfield and defense are world class. The Brazilians fight hard, but cannot overcome an overwhelming Spanish squad, who repeat and become the first European team to win the Cup in the Americas.
– AMWoods
Hammered Parrot
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