The Final Four Is ON!!!

Michigan State vs. Connecticut…

North Carolina vs. Villanova…

Did you all see the regional finals? None of these teams won their region scoring more than 71 points. All four of these teams are monsters, with hella athleticism, play suffocating D and they are the best in the country at crashing the boards. I got two of them right (I had Pittsburgh and Purdue — YES, PURDUE — making it out of their regions, so sue me). The first game, MSU vs. UCONN, is the one I’m really looking forward to; it is going to be close. Because all four of these teams have the muscle inside we are going to see some violence in the paint in both games. The Big East Conference is the popular, sexy conference this year, but when Tom Izzo and Roy Williams have the teams they want there is no stopping (plus they beat some primetime teams in Louisville and Oklahoma to get here). So I’m putting my money on Michigan State and North Carolina to play for the national championship on Monday (besides, my brackets will still be intact if they do). I have the Tar Heels taking that championship trophy back to Chapel Hill (Ty Lawson knows how to control a game, so UNC has a better backcourt). It’s gonna be two of the best college basketball games of the year.

– DaveyDoug

South Region

– As much as Tyler Hansbrough gets all the pub at North Carolina, it is Ty Lawson that holds the fate of the Tar Hells this year. They’ll be fine without Lawson (toe) in their first round sacrifice of Radford (puh-leeze!), but if he misses significant time by the time they get to the second round things could get very uncomfortable on Tobacco Road…

– …Because LSU is just the type of no-nonsense crusher that could make life miserable for North Carolina is Lawson can’t play. Not especially creative on offense in a down year for the SEC, but the Tigers do the little things that win you ballgames as well as blocking six shots per game while outrebounding teams by more than 5 per game. Butler has been a mainstay from the Horizon League for four years now and has made it out of the first round every time they’ve been in the tourney. Butler’s fifth-ranked defense nationally against LSU’s crushing interior defense should at least be interesting to watch, but I gotta figure that this is a matchup that favors the Tigers and the Bulldogs’ streak of first-round wins ends here.

– UPSET SPECIAL #8: Western Kentucky is getting some street cred in this tournament. They stepped up to the plate and made it to the Sweet 16 last year, giving the Sun Belt Conference a much-needed shot in the arm. The Hilltoppers (I love that nickname) lost some key players from last year but reloaded their up-tempo style of play and haven’t missed a beat (just ask Louisville). I would ordinarily take 5th-seeded Illinois in this matchup, with the third best scoring defense in the country, but they picked the wrong time to have health issues. Lose one starter and you can probably make up for it. Lose two and now you have a major problem. I’m going with the Hilltoppers.

– Everyone always expects Gonzaga to have a fairly good tournament, but that belief just hasn’t been justified recently. But Mark Few has them playing like they haven’t played in six years. This is a chameleon-like team that plays many different defenses and shows many different offensive looks – and is pretty adept at all of them. They raced through a West Coast Conference schedule and tournament in an up year. Akron was seventh in the nation in defending the trey and led the Mid-America Conference in turnover margin, but they had no big wins out of conference and showed no national profile. Gonzaga gets to stay home in their subregion so I like them against their end of the draw to get to the Sweet 16.

– Arizona State-Temple is as nondescript a 6-11 matchup as you ever see. Neither team really showed any kind of national profile given the relative weaknesses of their respective conferences this year. Both teams play lockdown defense – ASU a matchup zone, Temple a pressure man-to-man — so expect this to be a close low-scoring affair. This is a pick’em game, not really interesting but the kind of game that can break your brackets, so take the Sun Devils.

– I keep wondering who it is that Jim Boeheim pays off to get these gift draws every year for Syracuse. A #3 seed that has it this easy through its subregion. How is it that North Carolina and Oklahoma, the top two seeds in the South, don’t get it this easy? This is typical Orange b-ball: win the first 16 of 17, lose seven of ten, then make a run through the Big East tournament to steal a bid and an easy first two rounds. That said, they led the Big East in scoring and fgp. The lack of a supreme low post game is probably why they were wildly inconsistent this season. This is Stephen F. Austin’s first-ever tournament bid, so don’t be to upset if their starry eyes don’t lend themselves to giving the ‘Cuse any kind of roadblock. Syracuse in a walk through the Lumberjacks here and the Sun Devils in the next round on their way to the Sweet 16.

– Clemson should be much better than they are at tourney time. They are very physical with offensive balance and a veteran presence. But for some reason they never make their presence felt in the tourney. Michigan last made an appearance in the tourney eleven years ago. A guard-heavy team out of necessity, they are ahead of schedule in rebuilding. They don’t have a presence in the paint so rely heavily on perimeter shooting and go 11-deep. That said, the Wolverine’s youth and lack of experience should be tailor-made for the Tigers. A 9-9 conference record says Michigan shouldn’t have been here at all. Clemson sends them home early.

– All you need to know about Oklahoma is Blake Griffin, the likely NCAA player of the year. Without him the Sooners are nowhere. He can put them on his shoulders and take them deep into this tournament. But what could kill them in their guards, who are wildly inconsistent (look at the Big 12 tournament for proof). Morgan State is nothing special but finished the season 18-3 with a big win against Maryland mixed in. No real competition for Oklahoma here, but things get interesting in the next round, where a physical Clemson and their 1-3-1 matchup zone matches up very well with the Sooners. I’m guessing Clemson does an el foldo like they always do and Oklahoma makes its way to the Sweet 16, where their inside game outmuscles a game Syracuse on their way to a regional final matchup with North Carolina.

Intro
Midwest Region
West Region
East Region
South Region

– DaveyDoug

East Region

– Pittsburgh finally has all the tools they need to make it to the Final Four. Always known for being a very good defensive team, they now can get it done inside-outside on offense (49% fgp, 79 ppg). With two big mountains inside they outrebound their opponents by more than 10 per game. Foul shooting is an issue, but it won’t be given their draw this year until the regional finals. Pittsburgh avoids the upset bug for the first time in their history on their way to the Elite 8. East Tennessee State doesn’t stand a chance.

– Oklahoma State-Tennessee is not one of your better 8-9 matchups. Both teams lack size, with the Cowboys often playing with four guards. What separates them is that OSU can shoot lights out and give opponents fits. The Vols are better than average on offense but are porous as hell on defense. I can think of three teams seeded worse in this region alone that would give make life difficult for both. As it stands I’ll take the Cowboys’ dead-eye shooting in this one before they get shoved aside by Pitt in the second round.

– UPSET SPECIAL #5: I know Florida State is a very sexy pick to go deep, but understand this is their first tournament appearance in more than a decade. They had big wins against big opponents, they won 12 games by fewer than five points, they allowed only 64 ppg and held teams to 39% shooting. But Bo Ryan has proven over the last five years that he is very good at preparing Wisconsin for the tournament with their usual textbook stingy man-to-man defense. The Badgers are the best in the nation in allowing or 58 ppg, they were 14-1 in games where they allowed 60 points or less, and they held teams to 31% behind the 3-point line. Wisconsin is just plain better at the things the Seminoles do best.

– Xavier again. Sorry, but no matter who coaches them I’m just not ever sold on the Musketeers. Holding teams to 39% fgp and getting 5 bpg is a good thing at tourney time. But going 5-5 down the stretch in an Atlantic-10 Conference that wasn’t especially strong this year sends up all kinds of red flags. Portland State led the Big Sky in several offensive and defensive categories, but outside of a big win against Gonzaga none of that is any big whoop. Not an opening round game to write home about but Xavier should win easily…

– …Before finding a Wisconsin team that will pound them into pulp in the next round in UPSET SPECIAL #6. In the middle of the season Wisconsin did not play very well but they bookended that down time with some good streaky wins. Some really big wins for Xavier this season by I just gotta think that Bo Ryan has been historically good at getting the Badgers ready for early-round games like this.

– UPSET SPECIAL #7: UCLA doesn’t have the stranglehold on the Pac Ten that they had when making three consecutive Final Four appearances before this season. That’s what happens when you lose four players to the NBA in one fell swoop. Darren Collison is all that is left of those teams, and he isn’t nearly enough for the Bruins to do any real damage this time out. Virginia Commonwealth is just the kind of team the Bruins don’t need to see right now; experienced, with a furious pressure defense that is quick and creates turnovers (8 spg). Not one of Ben Howland’s better teams, and unfortunately, not only will it matter here but he will even lose Collison after this.

– I’m usually not too high on Villanova at tourney time, but this subregion is made to order for them. This is probably their best all-around offense in decades: They get it done both in the paint and on the perimeter, shoot 37% from three-point range, and make their free throws, all while holding teams to 66% fgp., with experience and depth. American, the surprise winner of the Patriot League, has no size to speak of but rely on high-percentage shots and avoiding turnovers. Problem is they don’t get second-chance shots, so look for ‘Nova to stymie their dribble penetration as they go through long stretches of their shots not falling. ‘Nova does too many things well to not make it to the Sweet 16 given this subregional draw.

– Tubby Smith doesn’t have the team he wants yet at Minnesota. He emphasizes pressure defense but the Golden Gophers have been extremely inconsistent, going 9-9 down the stretch and finishing 9-9 in the Big Ten. I don’t know why they are even here, but that is good news for Texas, who don’t have their past mojo on offense. They are pathetic at shooting, free throws, and treys. But they are deep and can bite you when one of their two go-to guys catches fire. Not a 7-10 matchup to miss work for, but an opening game gifted for the Longhorns.

– This may have been Mike Krzyzewski’s best coaching job ever at Duke. Really good talent on the outside (what else is new?) coupled with a suspect inside game but obviously good enough to win a usually tough ACC. Binghampton is spunky and will hit you with a 10-man rotation but they don’t really get any scoring contribution from their bench. Duke is always tested and battle-ready, so I can see them getting to the Elite 8 from this half of the region. But the lack of an elite inside game will matter in the regional final against Pitt.

Intro
Midwest Region
West Region
South Region
– DaveyDoug