Before we make our sleeper pick, we should first define what we mean here. No, we are not making a definitive choice as to who will win the World Cup. That is not what we mean by sleeper. We did that in the previous section, and if you missed it, click the section titled What We Think Will Happen. What we are doing here is outlining a team that is not one of the favorites who could surprise everybody and make its way to the final game. We don’t actually believe it will happen, but if things break right, it could. The most important consideration, though, are the betting odd. If the odds are short then there is a lot of betting on a national side and the betting public thinks that side has a chance of winning. But if the odds are long then very few people think a team is going to go all the way. We don’t go with a team that is a long shot (North Korea at 2000-1) because that team has no legitimate shot at winning this. The team we pick has to be a football mainstay on the international scene that the betting public just doesn’t think will win this time.

Let’s start by eliminating the obvious favorites. Brazil is a five-time winner of this event and always goes into any World Cup as pre-tournament favorites. They expect to win, and if the betting odds of 4-1 are any indication then the betting public thinks so, too. It is way too easy to pick Brazil as a favorite; they won’t sneak up on anyone so nobody is actually “sleeping” on them.

Any other year I would have picked Spain, but the one-time football enigma has finally won a major international tournament and there is a certain expectation for the first time that they will win this (I don’t think so, but that’s not the point here). For once Spain has no excuses or bad luck to fall back on. They’ve only lost once in four years, are the most talented team in this tournament and are expected to win – and at 4-1 odds are co-favorites with Brazil. No surprises here.

Argentina have the best player in the world in Leo Messi, are as talented as anyone at this year’s tournament and expect to roll over everybody in their path to the promised land. But because they have the most hypnotically magical player on the planet there is a certain expectation that he will raise his game to an otherworldly level not seen since his coach Maradona put this side on his shoulders 24 years ago and won a world championship. At 13-2 odds they are just behind Spain and Brazil as betting favorites. So they don’t qualify as a sleeper.

How about England? They always show up for international tournaments with a pedigree and a high expectation of winning – at least by their countrymen – and yet they somehow manage to beat themselves out of a shot at the crown. I would have no problem picking them in most other years as the sleeper, but I can’t this year. England have a tough defense – what you clearly need to win a World Cup in recent years – and a pretty clear path to the semifinals with the very real possibility that they won’t even be challenged until then. From there they have the horses to beat anybody on the planet two games in a row. The odds makers think so too, making England a 13-2 favorite. So for once I have to pass on the Three Lions.

Of late Italy gets no respect when they get to a World Cup, yet show the determination and mistake-free quality to go all the way. They are the defending world champions but the public seems to forget about that. It would be folly to excuse their chances just because their coach is using the same players from four years ago and virtually all of them are past their prime. But even players who have lost a step or two can find their form for a short series (just as the 2006 French team). Why not take Italy as the sleeper? Because defending World Cup champions just don’t repeat. More importantly, at 14-1 odds somebody is still betting on them.

For me it comes down to two teams; Germany and the Netherlands. Germany has a knack for going deep in the World Cup, and their record of getting to the final game is second to none. Even in years when they have a perceived lack of talent and quality they manage to make everybody with designs on winning this tournament have to go through them (see Germany, Korea/Japan 2002). So nobody takes the Germans for granted, least of all any of their opponents and certainly not the betting public.

But this time around the Netherlands is my best sleeper choice. If the Dutch get away from what has doomed them for years, get their midfield involved in their attack instead of circumventing it to get the ball into the forward men quickly, and get master creator Rafael van der Vaart involved like they should, then all of the attacking principals from the side that looked like it couldn’t lose during the group stage of Euro 2008 would be back in their collective prime – and then some. Holland is as creative and dynamic an offense as Spain, Argentina and Brazil. They should sail through Group E and then could possibly meat a manageable opponent – Paraguay or Slovakia – in the next round. That would leave them just three more games to get to a summit they’ve never reached but should have at least once – and the Dutch have the horses to beat anyone in the world over a three-game span. At 9-1 a $100 bet gets you $1000, so they are priced to go.

So if you have an extra C-note lying around, are going to Las Vegas or Monte Carlo sometime in the next week or so, and are looking for a investment with a reasonable rate of return, you could do worse than putting down a bet on The Netherlands.

– daveydoug